Carrier Global (CARR) Misses Q4 Revenue and EPS Estimates, Sales Drop 6%

Carrier Global (NYSE:CARR) reported Q4 CY2025 revenue of $4.84B, 6% below year-on-year and 11% below consensus, with non-GAAP EPS of $0.34, 4.5% below estimates. Sales declined amid softer demand in the residential segment, while commercial HVAC1 orders rose 49% on data center wins and aftermarket1 revenue grew at double digits. The stock fell 4.6% to $60.62 in after-hours trading. Over the last five years, CAGR for revenue was 4.5% and for EPS 9.2%, but operating margins have eroded, contracting 2.8 percentage points and reaching 2.1% in Q4. Organic revenue growth averaged 1% YoY over two years, and share repurchases reduced the share count by 4.7%—pressing questions about efficiency and fixed cost leverage. Sell-side analysts forecast 3.5% revenue growth and 12.4% full-year EPS expansion over the next 12 months, but the results highlight headwinds to demand and a need for operational improvement before considering a buy decision.