JPMorgan Cuts COIN Price Target to $290 Ahead of Q4 Earnings

JPMorgan Securities lowered its price target on Coinbase (COIN) to $290 from $399 ahead of the company’s Q4 earnings report due Thursday, February 17, 2026. The downgrade reflects a 50%+ drop in COIN since late October, with the stock down 27% in 2026 alone. Worthington projects adjusted EBITDA of $734 million for Q4, down from $801 million in Q3, driven by lower trading volumes, weaker crypto prices, and slower growth in USDC balances. He models Q4 spot trading volume of $263B and stablecoin revenue of $312 million; Deribit, acquired in August, contributed about $117 million on $586B in trading volume. Subscription and services revenue is forecast at $670 million, below guidance of $710–$790 million, reflecting softer retail trading, lower staking yields, and slower USDC growth. Analysts note softer retail volumes (Robinhood’s QoQ down 15%) and caution on the sustainability of USDC revenue. Compass Point’s Engel is bearish, emphasizing weakness in January trading revenue and the need for new initiatives like Deribit to offset spot market swings. Highlights will include commentary on trading activity, USDC resilience, and the impact of new futures and derivatives businesses.