Intel Kicks Off Earnings Season Amid AI Investment Scrutiny; Tech Giants Face Profitability Test

Intel is set to release its first-quarter 2026 earnings on Friday, January 23, at 01:00 UTC, marking the start of the U.S. tech earnings season. Investors are closely watching how major tech companies translate massive AI investments into tangible profits, with Amazon, Google, Microsoft, and Meta expected to detail their capital spending plans through 2025 and beyond. The performance of AI chip leaders NVIDIA (NVDA) and AMD (AMD), as well as Intel’s (INTC) data center and PC chip demand, will be pivotal. Amazon plans $125 billion in 2025 capex, Google raised its 2025 forecast to $910–930 billion, Meta increased its 2025 capex floor to $700–720 billion, and Microsoft aims for over $882 billion in 2026. Cloud revenue growth expectations remain high—AWS up 21%, Microsoft Cloud +25%, Google Cloud +35%, Meta overall +30%—but misses could trigger sharp sell-offs. Apple (AAPL) may report record Q1 revenue, driven by strong iPhone sales, while memory shortages and rising costs threaten margins at NVIDIA, which faces pressure from AMD’s Helios systems and a potential 16% EPS decline. Market divergence among the "Magnificent Seven" intensifies, with AI-driven winners and losers emerging. Analysts warn that profitability and execution will determine long-term leadership in the AI era.