BLS January Jobs Report (02-13-2026) Could Downward Revision: Expect 80K Jobs, 4.4% Unemployment

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the January 2026 employment report at 8:30 a.m. ET on February 13, 2026, following a brief government shutdown. The report will include an annual benchmark revision that could significantly revise prior months' gains. Economists expect about 80,000 net新增 jobs in January and the unemployment rate to remain at 4.4%. Last year's gains were among the weakest since 2003, with December gains averaging for the year and a low unemployment rate. Key factors: aging Baby Boomers, slower population growth, reduced immigration and deportations; post-pandemic over-hiring, policy uncertainty, and a shift toward AI and equipment to boost productivity. Weaker holiday hiring and milder early weather may lift construction employment seasonally. The preliminary annual benchmark for the 12 months ended March 2025 suggested about 911,000 fewer jobs than initially estimated, or roughly 76,000 per month. The final revision is expected to be a large downward adjustment, potentially about 700,000, reflecting lower survey response rates, changes in the birth-death model, and immigration measurement gaps. These adjustments affect about a tenth of a percentage point in overall employment but reflect the evolving labor market.