BLS Jobs Data: January Nonfarm Payrolls and 2025 Revisions Released February 14 (2/10/26)

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will release January nonfarm payrolls and revised 2025 employment numbers on February 14, 2026. Preliminary January data from private surveys suggest a meager labor market, with economists forecasting median gains of about 68,000 jobs, ranging from a loss of 10,000 to a gain of 135,000. The unemployment rate is expected to remain near 4.4%. Revisions to the 12-month period ending March 2024 showed 911,000 fewer jobs created than initially reported, and further benchmark updates for recent months could sharply lower the 2025 picture. The report, delayed by a brief partial government shutdown, is the "Super Bowl of jobs reports." While revisions reflect accuracy, they may prompt reactions from markets and the Trump administration. Federal Reserve officials have warned of a “productivity boom” and a gradual cooling of the labor market, with some forecasting effectively zero payroll growth in 2025, compared to about 2 million jobs added annually for the previous decade. The revisions could influence monetary policy and hiring decisions.