Jan 2026 Non-Farm Payrolls Far Above Forecast: 130K Jobs, 4.3% U-Rate, 89.8K Annual Revisions

The January 2026 nonfarm payrolls report showed 130,000 new jobs and a 4.3% unemployment rate, both exceeding expectations. Annual revisions大幅 reduced prior gains by 89.8K, signaling caution about the underlying trend. Key highlights: Jobs increased 130K, well above the 5.5K median forecast; the unemployment rate fell to 4.3% from 4.4% as household survey employment rose 52.8K. Average hourly earnings rose 0.4% monthly, annualized to 3.7%, and average weekly hours reached 34.3. Annual revisions shaved 89.8K from the 2024:04–2025:03 period; November and December gains were revised down by 1.5K and 2K, respectively. Net job loss in the last six months of 2025 was about 1K. Job gains remained concentrated in healthcare and social services (82K combined) and construction (33K). The FedWatch model now prices about an 8% chance of a March rate cut, with the next potential easing possibly in June. Analysts note weather-driven construction gains, stronger healthcare and retail activity, and other temporary factors. Excluding these, the private sector labor market may add roughly 50K per month.