Jan Jobs Report Sentiment: Dow Falls, S&P +0.1%, Nasdaq +0.2% Amid Fed Cut Outlook

The January nonfarm payrolls report, released on February 11, 2026, surprised on the upside: the U.S. added 130,000 jobs, unemployment fell to 4.3%, and the BLS revised 2025 payrolls growth to 181,000, the weakest since 2003 (outside of recessions). This resilience in the labor market is reinforcing the case for continued Federal Reserve rate holds and increasing the likelihood of cuts in 2026, with over 40% pricing a June pause and traders averaging two cuts by year-end. On Wednesday, February 11, 2026, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) fell below持平, the S&P 500 (^GSPC) rose 0.1%, and the Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) climbed 0.2%. Earnings season is closely watched for further signals on consumer and corporate earnings, with McDonald's (MCD) reporting after the bell and Kraft Heinz (KHC) pausing a spin-off. Cisco Systems (CSCO) is set to release results amid a battle with Nvidia (NVDA) for AI networking spending.