Macro Update: Q4 Earnings Outlook 11.9% vs 8.3% Expectations as Big Tech Cautious Amid Crypto Slide

The fourth-quarter earnings season is shaping up with strong momentum as 33% of S&P 500 companies have reported, per FactSet. Analysts estimate a 11.9% increase in earnings per share for Q4, up from 8.3% expectations, signaling the 10th consecutive quarter of annual earnings growth for the index and the fifth consecutive quarter of double-digit gains. If realized, this would mark the fifth straight quarter of double-digit growth for the S&P 500. Contextual factors include elevated capital expenditures by Big Tech and ongoing themes of AI, trade policy under the Trump administration, and a K-shaped consumer economy. The broader backdrop includes a recent decline in bitcoin prices, which has pressured growth stocks like Amazon (AMZN) while抬升ing volatility and investor attention to AI-driven platforms such as Roblox (RBLX). Data as of Jan. 30, 2026, from FactSet.