NY Fed Survey: January Inflation Outlook Eases, Labor Prospects Slightly Improve (Jan 2026)

The NY Fed’s Monday, January 11, 2026 survey shows consumers expect inflation to moderate in January, with short-term price concerns easing. The median 12-month inflation outlook fell to 3.1% from 3.4% in December; three- and five-year expectations remained at 3%. Labor market sentiment improved slightly, with respondents expecting a lower probability of job loss and a 46% chance of finding work within three months. These trends suggest a stabilizing labor market, providing context for the Fed’s December decisions to keep policy unchanged despite persistently high inflation above its 2% target. Data align with the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ February 5 report, which showed December job vacancies at their lowest since 2020 and employment declines rising slightly. The January employment report, delayed due to a government shutdown, is scheduled for Wednesday, February 11. Household finances showed a split: roughly equal numbers expect income to improve or worsen. While some raised wage growth expectations, overall income outlooks were slightly revised down. Despite optimism about employment, respondents expect the unemployment rate to rise and credit conditions to tighten, with many下调their assessment of current and future financial状况.