Prediction Market Favors BlackRock's Rieder as Next Fed Chair With 48% Odds

Prediction market Kalshi shows BlackRock bond chief Rick Rieder as the current frontrunner to replace Jerome Powell as Federal Reserve chair, with 48% odds as of January 27, 2026. Rieder's surge reflects perceived alignment with President Trump's preference for dovish monetary policy and faster rate cuts. Analysts note Rieder would likely advocate for three rate cuts in 2026 based on productivity gains and fading inflation pressures. Former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh trails at 31% probability. Powell's term ends in May 2026 amid ongoing White House pressure on Fed independence, including Trump's criticism of current rate policy and threats to remove Powell.