U.S. Retail Sales Weaken Bond Yields and Lend 19.6% Chance of Fed Rate Cut in February

U.S. retail sales持平，低于市场预期的增长，引发对经济动能放缓的担忧，并推动10年期与30年期美国公债收益率下行。As of February 10, 2026, the 10-year yield fell 5.3 bps to 4.14% and the 30-year yield 6.1 bps to about 4.79%, its lowest since early January. The CME FedWatch Tool shows a 19.6% chance of a 25-bp rate cut in February, up from 17.2% the prior day, with a higher probability of three to four cuts this year. EY-Parthenon economist Gregory Daco noted December retail sales growth was 0% versus a 0.4% consensus, with households increasingly relying on credit and savings. European bond markets followed higher on the news. GDPNOW revised U.S. real GDP growth to 3.7% in January from 4.2%. Meanwhile, major U.S. stock indices declined: Dow Jones continued within record-high territory, while S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite each fell 0.3% and 0.6%, respectively.