US Initial Jobless Claims Jump 2.2K to 231K, Winters Drive Labor Market Volatility (02-05-2026)

US initial jobless claims rose 22,000 to 231,000 for the week ended January 31, 2026, exceeding expectations and the largest weekly increase in about a month, according to the Department of Labor. Seasonally adjusted continuing claims climbed to 184.4K. The four-week moving average also rose to 212,000, reflecting colder weather disruptions that may have prompted short-term layoffs. Claims rose most in Pennsylvania, New York, and Missouri. Meanwhile, Challenger, Gray & Christmas reported 108,435 job separations in January 2026, a 118% year-over-year and 205% from December, the highest since 2009. Contract loss accounted for the largest share, followed by economic conditions and restructuring. AI accounted for about 7% of January separations (7,624 roles), with roughly 80,000 AI-related separation plans tracked since 2023. New hiring in January totaled 5,306, the lowest since 2009, suggesting a transition from “not hiring, not laying off” to “not hiring, laying off.” The January nonfarm payroll report, originally scheduled for February 5, has been postponed to February 11, with economists forecasting a gain of about 70K jobs and an unemployment rate of 4.4%.