Benchmark Diesel Price Rises 7.1 Cents to $3.53/G After Eight-Week Decline - DOE/EIA

The U.S. average retail diesel price increased 7.1 cents per gallon to $3.53/g as of Monday, marking the first rise in eight weeks, according to the Department of Energy/Energy Information Administration (DOE/EIA). The uptick follows rising ultra low sulfur diesel (ULSD) futures on the CME, which settled at $2.3385/g on Tuesday—up from $2.0567/g on January 7—driven by production disruptions in Kazakhstan. Output at the Tengiz and Korolev fields has halted due to power issues, with Reuters reporting a 7- to 10-day outage expected. Kazakhstan’s crude output fell to 1.52 million b/d in December from 1.75 million b/d in November. Geopolitical tensions, including concerns over Iranian supply and Greenland-related instability, also lifted prices. Brent crude rebounded to $64.92/b on Tuesday from a recent low of $59.96/b. Despite the rally, the International Energy Agency maintained its bearish 2026 outlook, forecasting supply growth of 2.5 million b/d versus demand growth of 930,000 b/d, with inventories rising at 1.3 million b/d in 2025.