Bernstein: Oracle Still Just 15% Undervalued Even If AI Orders Collapse; ORCL-US Could Hold at $137

Bernstein’s stress test under a worst-case scenario—complete loss of OpenAI and all 2025 fiscal fourth-quarter onward AI contracts—finds Oracle (ORCL-US) could still support a price of $137 per share, implying about 15% downside from its current ~$160 level. Core database, SaaS, and OCI revenue would cover roughly 85% of existing valuation. Data center commitments, while $24.8B on balance, pose a staggered risk: peak exposure around 2030 of $130B–$165B across 15–19-year terms with phased capacity. Server and GPU CAPEX tied to AI is often orderable 3–6 months before onboarding; delays or cancellations limit sunk costs, and assets are generally reusable. Including ~$25B in recent debt and equity financing, the model projects $101B revenue and ~$9 EPS in 2030. At a peer-average P/E of 27.3, intrinsic value is ~$137. With funding constraints easing, the risk-reward profile is improving. On February 12, 2026, ORCL-US traded down to a session low of $152.50 before rebounding to $159.04, closing at ~$156.43.