Bitcoin Eyes 65,000-Dollar Test: Prediction Markets Signal 72% Chance by March 1

Bitcoin, at a 20-year cycle low, faces a significant downside as per prediction markets. On Polymarket, there is an 82% chance it will fall to $65,000 this year, and a 72% probability it will break $70,000 by March 1, up 35 points from early February. The 2-month contract reflects $170,000 in net short bets amid ETF outflows, waning macro support, and a loss of safe-haven appeal. The broader crypto market, now about $2.5T, is in a two-year trough following a volatile October selloff. New data shows U.S. crypto ETFs have net outflows of roughly $40B over the past three months, with most traders in the market at or near breakeven. Analysts note a sharp cooling in inflows to physical ETFs, a key funding source, as long-term holders grow cautious. Despite this, some asset managers and banks maintain a bullish view, expecting a notable rebound and a potential年底前 touch of $15,000–$20,000, though such a scenario is not reflected in current prediction pricing.