Bitcoin's Ratio to Gold Falls to 18.46, Below 200-Week Moving Average

Bitcoin’s value relative to gold has declined sharply, with the BTC-to-gold ratio now at 18.46, below its 200-week moving average of 21.90, signaling a potential extended bear market. The ratio, which peaked near 40.9 in December 2024, has fallen about 55% against gold since then, marking a significant deterioration in bitcoin’s performance compared to the precious metal. Gold is trading near $4,900 an ounce, up 12% year to date, while bitcoin remains below $89,000 and shows only marginal gains for the year. Over five years, gold has returned approximately 160%, outpacing bitcoin’s 150% gain. Historically, when the BTC-to-gold ratio drops more than 30% below the 200-week average—such as during the 2022 bear market—it remained suppressed for over a year. Given the current breakdown starting in November 2025, the pattern may persist into late 2026. Previous cycles saw declines of 77% (2022) and 84% (2017–2018), suggesting further downside risk.