Brent and ULSD Rise as Oil Glut Narrative Fades, Diesel Prices Edge Higher

Benchmark diesel prices edged higher this week, the fourth consecutive week of gains, as the oil glut narrative begins to fade. The DOE/EIA average weekly retail diesel price rose 0.7 cents/gallon to $3.688/g on February 10, 2026, the smallest gain in a four-week climb from $3.459/g on January 12, 2026. Meanwhile, the CME front-month ULSD contract rolled from February to March and settled at $2.4169/g on February 10, after reaching a high of $2.47/g earlier in the week. Brent crude settled at $69.04/barrel on February 10, up $8.19/b from $60.85/barrel on December 31, 2025. Analyst Jeffrey Currie of Energy Pathways said the oil glut story has not materialized and pointed to supply constraints in data centers and AI growth as a longer-term driver of commodity prices, with production capacity expansion expected to peak in 2026.