Canephora Coffee Expansion into New Brazilian Territories Driven by High Prices (2026)

Canephora coffee, including conilon and robusta, is expanding beyond traditional belts in Brazil, with production rising in Mato Grosso, Minas Gerais, and Ceara states. Since 2020, output has surged: Mato Grosso is forecast at 298,700 bags in 2026 (up from 158,400 in 2020); Minas Gerais at 602,200 bags in 2026 (a 94% increase); and Ceara's total for 2026 is expected at 118,700 bags, roughly triple 2020 levels. The shift follows elevated prices—robusta hit $5,849 per metric ton in late 2024—driving planting and productivity improvements. Rondonia’s 50 bags/ha average benchmarks for Mato Grosso, which aims to reach that level. Ceara plans to plant up to 5,000 hectares of conilon, targeting about 1,000 hectares in 2026, leveraging its port and transport infrastructure to boost exports.