Cocoa Futures Plunge to 2.25Y and 2.5Y Lows Amid Surplus, Weak Demand (CCH26, CAH26)

Cocoa prices fell sharply on February 12, 2026. March ICE NY cocoa (CCH26) down -139 (-3.69%) and March ICE London cocoa #7 (CAH26) down -129 (-4.71%). NY cocoa hit its 2.25-year nearest-futures low and London cocoa reached a 2.5-year low as abundant supplies, weak demand, and higher West African harvests outpace tightening global supply outlooks. Supporting context: StoneX forecast a 287,000 MT surplus in 2025/26 and 267,000 MT in 2026/27. ICCO reported global stocks up 4.2% y/y to 1.1 MMT. ICE cocoa inventories reached 1,871,034 bags, a 3.75-month high. Barry Callebaut AG saw cocoa sales volume down -22% QoQ in Nov 2025. European cocoa grindings -8.3% y/y Q4, Asian -4.8%, and North American +0.3%. Nigerian Dec cocoa exports up +17% y/y to 54,799 MT. Positive factors: Ivory Coast deliveries to ports in the current marketing year down -3.8% y/y to 1.27 MMT. Nigerian production is expected -11% y/y to 305,000 MT in 2025/26. ICCO cut 2024/25 surplus to 49,000 MT and production to 4.69 MMT; Rabobank trimmed 2025/26 surplus to 250,000 MT.