Cocoa Futures Drop on Surplus Forecasts and Weaker Demand: CCH26, CAH26

Cocoa futures fall sharply on Feb 9, 2026: March CCH26 down -2.43% (-102), March CAH26 down -3.38% (-103). Pressure stems from abundant supplies and tepid demand, with ICE-monitored stocks at a 1.5-year high of 2,966,214 bags. Global surplus outlooks weigh on prices: StoneX projects 287,000 MT surplus in 2025/26 and 267,000 MT in 2026/27; ICCO stocks rose 4.2% y/y to 1.1 MMT. Output weakness persists—European grindings -8.3% y/y Q4-2025, Asian -4.8%, North American +0.3%—while Ivory Coast shipments in the marketing year Oct 1, 2025–Feb 8, 2026, fell -3.8% to 1.27 MMT. Support for prices includes a tighter global supply outlook: ICCO revised 2023/24 to a deficit of -494,000 MT, and estimated 2024/25 surplus of 49,000 MT after production rose +7.4% y/y to 4.69 MMT. Favorable growing conditions in West Africa and smaller Nigerian exports (-7% y/y to 35,203 MT) add downside, while Nigerian production is forecast -11% y/y to 305,000 MT in 2025/26.