Cocoa Futures Surge on Hershey Outlook Easing Supply Constraints (CCH26, CAH26)

Cocoa futures climb sharply on February 5, 2026, as Hershey's upbeat 2026 outlook eases demand concerns and triggers short-covering. March ICE New York cocoa (CCH26) is up +109 (+2.67%) and March ICE London cocoa #7 (CAH26) +92 (+3.09%). Yesterday, NY and London cocoa touched 2.25- and 2.5-year lows, following abundant supplies and weak demand. StoneX forecast a 287,000 MT surplus in 2025/26 and 267,000 MT in 2026/27; ICCO reported global stocks up 4.2% y/y to 1.1 MMT. Support is building from tighter supply outlooks: ICCO cut 2024/25 surplus to 49,000 MT and production to 4.69 MMT; Rabobank trimmed 2025/26 surplus to 250,000 MT from 328,000 MT. Ivory Coast deliveries to ports declined 4.7% MoM in the current marketing year, and West Africa's pod count is 7% above average with a higher-quality crop. ICE port cocoa inventories rose to a 2.75-month high of 1,793,547 bags, while Nigeria's November exports fell 7% y/y and output is expected down 11% to 305,000 MT in 2025/26.