Crude Oil Jumps as Trump’s Iran Ultimatum Sparks Supply Fears

Brent crude surged 5.2% to $92.30/barrel and WTI rose 4.8% to $89.15/barrel on January 29, 2026, after former President Donald Trump issued a public ultimatum to Iran, escalating Middle East tensions and triggering fears of supply disruptions. Analysts at Rystad Energy warn any closure of the Strait of Hormuz — through which 20% of global oil flows — could remove up to 17 million barrels per day from markets. U.S. officials have not confirmed military mobilization, but energy traders are pricing in geopolitical risk premiums. ICE Brent futures volume spiked 140% above 30-day average. Iran’s oil exports averaged 1.6 million bpd in December 2025, per IEA data. While not under current sanctions, renewed U.S. pressure threatens to choke off Iranian supply. Markets remain sensitive ahead of OPEC+’s February 5 meeting.