Derivatives Expert: BTC Slide Not Signal of True Capitulation

Bitcoin (BTC) recently fell over 10% in a single day to around $60,000 before recovering to about $69,000 as of February 10, 2026. However, Amberdata's director of derivatives Greg Magadini does not see the decline as a sign of true capitulation. Magadini notes the BTC futures basis barely ranged -100bps and remains roughly 4% discount to spot, inline with risk-free treasury yields. At the 2022 bear market bottom, the 90-day futures traded about 9% discount to spot, a historical indicator of capitulation. If the pattern holds, further downside remains possible as futures traders may yet capitulate, creating a wider discount between futures and spot prices.