DRAM Shortage and Pricing Outlook: AI-Driven Constraints into 2028

TheDRAM shortage and pricing volatility will not resolve quickly with new fabs, according to analysts. Even with gradual capacity expansion post-2027, high AI data center demand, persistent HBM upgrades, and pricing stickiness are likely to keep prices in a tight range through 2028. AI-driven demand has outpaced supply, pushingDRAM prices up about 80%–90% this year. AI-focused GPU and accelerator needs are挤压ing supply originally allocated to PCs and consumer electronics. WithDRAM fabs costing over $15B and long lead times, the industry has been cautious, creating a supply gap that aligns with the rapid expansion of about 2,000 new data centers globally, many of which would add roughly 20% to global data center capacity. Key players report shifting toward HBM, which can comprise over half of GPU packaging and is expected to grow from ~$350B in 2025 to ~$1T in 2028, with supply likely to lag demand. Major fabs are scheduled to begin output in 2027–2028 (e.g., Micron in Singapore and at PSMC sites, SK Hynix incheon and West Lafayette, Samsung in Pyeongtaek), but Intel executive Cheng厥 Wu warned there will be no meaningful easing before 2028. Price declines are expected to be slow and reluctant as next-gen HBM4 and stacking technologies like Advanced MR-MUF and Hybrid bonding push node limits and consume more silicon. Unless AI investment growth moderates,DRAM pricing may remain elevated for an extended period.