Europe's Aluminum Deficit Hits 93% as Smelter Closures Threaten Auto, Aerospace Sectors

Europe faces a severe structural aluminum shortage, consuming 13.5 million tons annually but producing only 950,000 tons domestically as of January 2026. The 93% deficit, driven by high energy costs shuttering smelters like Slovalco, threatens automotive, aerospace, and construction supply chains. Primary aluminum production in Western and Central Europe has fallen over 25% since 2010. While demand for high-strength alloys is projected to grow, supply is constrained by Chinese control of 95% of global magnesium production and low zinc inventories. The EU's new Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism also taxes carbon-intensive imports needed to replace lost domestic output. Downstream converters like Constellium SE are capturing margins from the aerospace backlog, but the industry remains dependent on primary smelting. Recycling is limited for critical aerospace components due to contamination, underscoring the precarious supply challenge.