Fed's Core PCE Inflation Data for November Shows 2.8% Annual Rise, Matching Prior Month

The Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, rose 2.8% year-over-year in November, unchanged from September’s reading, according to a Wells Fargo Securities consensus estimate. The data, released January 21, 2026, by the Bureau of Economic Analysis, remains above the Fed’s 2% target. The report covers delayed October and November figures due to disruptions from the October–November 2025 government shutdown, reducing its immediate impact on monetary policy ahead of the January 27–28 FOMC meeting. Deutsche Bank economist Brett Ryan noted officials will likely await additional data to assess underlying trends, as both PCE and November’s Consumer Price Index were affected by collection issues. While housing market weakness has restrained rent-driven inflation, tariff-related costs continue to pose upward pressure. The Fed has cut rates at each of its last three meetings amid labor market concerns, despite inflation remaining elevated since 2021.