Ford Misses Q4 Earnings Amid EV Losses; 2026 Outlook and 8% Margin Target Highlight Recovery (F)

Ford (F) posted Q4 results after the market that missed estimates, with a full-year net loss of $8.2B and a Q4 net loss of $11.1B, primarily due to $12.5B and $7B special items from its EV pivot recognized in Q4 and 2026–2027, respectively. The Model e unit is expected to report a $4B–$4.5B loss in 2026. Looking ahead, Ford guided to adjusted EBIT $8B–$10B, free cash flow $5B–$6B, and CAPEX $9.5B–$10.5B for 2026, with first-half EBIT expected lower than the second-half as temporary aluminum sourcing for the F-Series adds costs. The Novelis plant fire in upstate New York, which disrupted production, is expected to normalize by year-end. Tariff-offset changes communicated in December added $900M in costs, and the year included $2B in net tariff costs and $2B in Novelis-related outages. US sales rose 6% in 2025 to about 2.2M vehicles; hybrids posted a record 228,072 units, up 21.7%, while EVs declined 50% after the federal tax credit expired. CEO Jim Farley and CFO Sherry House target an 8% adjusted EBIT margin by 2029, with Ford+ units separating traditional ICE, EV, and Pro truck businesses.