Freight Market Tightens in Q4: U.S. Bank Indices Show Spending Up 4.6% vs Volumes Flat

The U.S. Bank Freight Payment Index for Q4 indicates a slight 1.5% sequential rise in national shipments as capacity contracted, pushing shipper spending to its highest level since early 2024. The National Shipments Index declined 4.9% year-over-year, while the National Spend Index rose 4.6% QoQ and 5.2% YoY, the first annual increase in spending in three years. Capacity constraints, including fleet reductions, stricter English Language Proficiency rules, and a temporary pause on non-domiciled CDLs (suspended in court), widened the spending-volume gap. Spot rates climbed 4.8% QoQ and 5.1% YoY, with contract rates up 1.4% QoQ and 2.9% YoY. Fuel costs declined 2.9% YoQ, leaving pricing driven primarily by tighter capacity. Regionally, the Northeast led with gains in both shipments and spending; the Southwest faced the steepest shipment declines despite higher costs; the West posted modest gains; the Midwest saw a slight increase in shipments; and the Southeast recorded consecutive quarterly declines. Overall, the 2025 index is down 9.9% from 2024, signaling a gradually tighter market with potential for recovery if broader demand strengthens.