Geopolitical Risks and Supply Concerns Drive Crude Oil Prices Higher

Crude oil prices surged today, with March WTI crude (CLH26) rising +2.71% to a 1-week high, supported by geopolitical tensions and dollar weakness. Russia's refusal to resolve the Ukraine conflict and President Trump's threats against Iran bolstered crude prices, while unrest in Iran further underpinned oil markets. Additionally, Kazakhstan's Tengiz and Korolev fields remain shut due to power generator fires, reducing global supply. OPEC+ plans to pause production increases in Q1 2026 amid growing oil surplus concerns. The IEA lowered its 2026 global crude surplus estimate, while the EIA revised US production estimates upward. Tanker storage data fell -8.6%, and Chinese crude demand remains supportive. Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries and tankers have also constrained global oil supplies.