Global Sugar Output Rises, Pressuring Prices Ahead of Exports

Global sugar prices declined on March 23, with NY world sugar #11 (SBH26) down -0.22 (-1.47%) and London ICE white sugar #5 (SWH26) down -6.90 (-1.57%). Higher production in Brazil and India is weighing on prices, as Brazil's Center-South output rose +0.9% y/y to 40.222 MMT through December, while India's output surged +22% y/y to 15.9 MMT by January 15. The ISMA raised India's full-year estimate to 31 MMT, up +18.8% y/y, and cut ethanol usage forecasts, potentially boosting exports. Covrig Analytics projected a global surplus of 4.7 MMT for 2025/26, though supplies are expected to tighten in 2026/27. Meanwhile, Thailand projects a +5% y/y increase in output to 10.5 MMT. USDA forecasts global production at a record 189.318 MMT, with ending stocks falling -2.9% y/y to 41.188 MMT.