LNG Glut Forecast for 2026 as U.S.-Led Supply Surge Outpaces Demand

A looming liquefied natural gas (LNG) supply glut is forecast for 2026, driven by a record expansion of export capacity, primarily from the United States. The International Energy Agency projects global LNG export capacity will rise by roughly 50%, or 300 billion cubic metres per year, between 2025 and 2030, with about 45% of growth coming from the U.S. U.S. LNG exports hit a record 111 million metric tonnes (mmt) in 2025, accounting for roughly 25% of global shipments. New projects like Venture Global's Plaquemines facility and the upcoming Golden Pass LNG are set to add approximately 20 mmt of annual U.S. capacity. Analysts warn this supply surge will compress producer margins and lower prices, benefiting consumers but pressuring exporters. Despite the glut forecast, long-term LNG demand is now expected to grow until 2050, revised upward due to slower renewable energy adoption and rising power demand from data centers and AI.