Micron (MU) Falls 2.8% as HBM4 Outlook Casts Shadow Amid NVIDIA GPU Shift; Cloud Expenditure Surge Drives Memory Demand

Micron Technology (MU) fell 2.8% on Feb 9 as investors reassessed competition, following SemiAnalysis’ report that Micron’s HBM4 likely will not be included in NVIDIA’s (NVDA) Vera Rubin GPU supply for the first 12 months due to pin-speed constraints. Samsung Electronics is scheduled to begin HBM4 production at month-end for the GPU, with SK Hynix expected to capture more than 50% of the HBM4 supply, according to Yonhap. Micron may account for about 20% of the HBM4 supply, per Yonhap. Micron’s leadership previously refuted reports of HBM4 performance issues, and management is set to address the matter at Morgan Stanley’s tech conference in March. Micron’s share of the HBM4 market will ultimately depend on yield, with Micron and SK Hynix outperforming Samsung in that metric. In parallel, capital expenditures for cloud and AI workloads are surging. RBC Capital Markets analyst Srini Pajjuri estimates that about 45% of the growth in memory and storage spending in 2025 relates toDRAM and NAND price increases, withDRAM expected to roughly double and NAND up more than 85% this year. He projects the data center memory market to reach $237B in 2026, representing about 30% of the capital spending of the largest cloud companies. However, Pajjuri notes memory prices are unlikely to experience a sharp correction in 2027, though they remain the largest uncertainty for future capital spending.