OpenAI Loses AI Chatbot Market Share as Gemini and Grok Close Gap, IPO Outlook Pressured

OpenAI’s ChatGPT faces a narrowing lead in AI chatbots as Google’s Gemini expands both in app and web traffic. Apptopia data shows ChatGPT’s app share fell from 69.1% in January 2025 to 45.3% in 2026, while Gemini rose to 25.2% from 14.7%. Grok reached 15.2% in 2026, up from 1.6% in 2025. Gemini surpassed 2B monthly visits in January 2026 and surpassed 750M MAUs in Q4 2025, compared with ChatGPT’s reported 810M MAUs. SimilarWeb indicates Gemini’s domain traffic outpaced ChatGPT’s by 28.38% in December 2025, while ChatGPT’s traffic declined 5.59%. Anthropic holds about a third of the enterprise AI market, per Menlo Ventures, outpacing OpenAI’s 25% and Gemini’s 20%. CEO Sam Altman issued an eight-week “code red” in December to refocus on core products amid intensifying competition. Diversification is rising, with one in five AI users using multiple apps; Claude leads in engagement at 34.7 minutes per day in January. If ChatGPT’s consumer share continues to decline, it could complicate OpenAI’s planned IPO later in 2026, especially with Anthropic also considering a public offering.