Prediction Markets: Polymarket, Kalshi, Myriad Mechanics and $63.5B 2025 Volume

Prediction markets—on-chain platforms enabling bets on future events—operate via tradable shares priced between $0.00 and $1.00, where price reflects perceived odds. Markets resolve at election or event close; traders can buy/sell before resolution, with oracles validating outcomes and AMM or order-book mechanisms providing liquidity. Key platforms include Kalshi, the largest by volume as of February 2026, and Polymarket, centralized and on-chain, valued at $9B in October 2025 after a $2B IEX investment; Myriad, launched by Decrypt’s parent Dastan in January 2025, uses an AMM and seeks a native token with POLY trademarks filed in February 2026. Opinion raised $20M in Q1 2026 on BNB Chain. Global volume surged to $63.5B in 2025 from $15.8B in 2024, per CertiK (February 2026). Regulatory challenges include a $1.4M CFTC fine in 2022, DOJ/CFTC closures in July 2025, bans in Portugal and Hungary, and temporary injunctions in Massachusetts and Nevada. Risks include wash trading and hybrid security exposure as the sector expands.