Prediction Markets Clash Over Cardi B's Super Bowl Halftime Status: KALSHI, POLYMARKET Disputes

Prediction markets face regulatory and settlement disputes over whether Cardi B's halftime appearance by Bad Bunny qualified as a "performance." Kalshi refunded all bets after citing rule ambiguity, closing the $0.74 No and $0.26 Yes contract and returning all money, citing a pause in trading. Polymarket resolved the event in favor of Cardi B's performance, with a final decision on Wednesday pending. More than $47.3 million was wagered on Kalshi's "Who will perform at the Big Game?" contract, and over $10 million on Polymarket's equivalent. Kalshi hit a daily record of over $1 billion in trading volume on February 1, 2026, a 2,700% increase from 2025. Season-long Super Bowl winner futures totaled $828.6 million, up over 2,000% year-over-year, amid deposit issues resolved with reimbursements and credit to affected users. A CFTC complaint by a Yes holder alleges Kalshi violated the Commodity Exchange Act in resolving the Cardi B contract, seeking recovery of $3,700.