Research Firm Flags Elevated Equity Issuance as Potential AI Bubble Peak Signal

A research firm warns that a surge in U.S. equity issuance, driven by AI investment fervor, is a classic signal that the market may be approaching a bubble peak. Capital Economics stated in a client note dated January 25, 2026, that total equity issuance by non-financial corporations is at levels comparable to prior market peaks, including the dot-com bubble. Market economist Joe Maher noted that high and rising gross equity issuance is a warning sign for an impending bust, as it can eventually outstrip investor demand and pressure prices. However, he added that net issuance remains negative due to significant stock buybacks, making the current situation less extreme historically. Maher warned that if major private tech firms like SpaceX or OpenAI go public, net issuance could turn positive—a key precursor to a market top—and that rising private market fundraising could also signal bubble risks.