Trump Tariffs Cost Americans $200 Billion in 2025, Study Finds – Kiel Institute

U.S. consumers are bearing nearly the entire cost of President Trump’s tariffs, with a Kiel Institute study revealing that 96% of tariff burdens were passed through to American importers and households in 2025. The $200 billion collected by the U.S. Treasury amounted to an effective consumption tax on domestic buyers, according to the German think tank. The study analyzed over 25 million transactions valued at $4 trillion, showing foreign exporters maintained prices and market share rather than absorbing costs. In India, exports to the U.S. dropped 24% after a 50% tariff hike, with no price cuts. Economists Peter Orszag and Adam Posen warn inflation could exceed 4% by end-2026 as tariff pass-through accelerates, driven by inventory depletion and lagging pricing adjustments. They also cite labor shortages from mass deportations as a growing inflationary force, with home health care costs rising 10% annually. Despite White House claims that foreign exporters pay tariffs, evidence shows Americans are footing the bill—transforming trade policy into a wealth transfer from consumers to the federal treasury.