Prologis (PLD) Expects U.S. Warehouse Market Tightening Through 2026 on Rising Demand, Falling Vacancies

Prologis (NYSE: PLD) said Wednesday the U.S. warehouse market is turning, forecasting improvements in net absorption, occupancy, and rents through 2026 as vacancies decline from 7.4% to 7.1%-7.2%. The company noted vacancy rates have peaked and rents are turning positive in key markets. The REIT secured a record 228 million square feet of leases in 2025, with e-commerce driving 20% of new deals. Q4 lease starts totaled 43.8 million square feet, down 6% year-over-year, while average occupancy was 95.3%, up to 95.8% by quarter-end—the highest of 2025 and 300 bps above the broader market. Net effective rent change on multiyear leases was 43.8% in Q4, with mark-to-market gains adding $800 million in future NOI. Q4 revenue rose 8% to $2.09 billion, matching forecasts, with core FFO at $1.44 per share. For 2026, Prologis guided core FFO to $6.00–$6.20 per share, assuming development starts of $2.25B–$2.75B, two-thirds in the U.S., 40% for data centers. Net absorption is expected to rise to 200 million square feet in 2026 from 155 million in 2025.