RXO (NYSE: RXO) Hopes AI and Spot Recovery Offset Q4 Earnings Slide

RXO (NYSE: RXO) reported a fourth-quarter net loss and lower EBITDA, as spot freight rates rose 15% MoM outpacing contract rates while purchased transportation costs climbed. CEO Drew Wilkerson said the “waterfall” of freight is clearing past multiple carriers, with spot loads up sequentially and a stronger rejection index on the SONAR Outbound Tender. “We see early momentum in the pipeline, up over 50% YoY, and expect truckload volume to outperform as early as mid-2026,” Wilkerson said, noting late-stage brokerage sales volume up 19% in productivity despite a 12% YoY truckload decline (74% of brokerage volume). Management attributed improvements to AI initiatives: a proprietary AI spot agent, enhanced pricing tools, generative AI tickets, automated training updates and identity-based theft prevention. Brokerage headcount declined mid-teens YoY while productivity rose 19%. Wall Street reacted unevenly: RXO shares fell initially but gained about 1% to $16.75 at 11:20 a.m. Friday, down roughly 19.7% year-to-date. Deutsche Bank said the 130-basis-point margin contraction was better than peers but the 7¢/share loss exceeded the 4¢/share consensus.