Saia (NASDAQ:SAIA) Eyes Payoff on $2B Network Investment Amid Fourth-Quarter EPS Drop

Saia (NASDAQ:SAIA) reported fourth-quarter EPS of $1.77, 38% y/y and 14 cents below estimate, with a 91.9% operating ratio (8.1% margin), 480 bps worse y/y and 430 bps from Q3. Excluding $4.7 million in insurance-related claims, EPS would have been $1.91, in line with guidance. The company is investing $2 billion to expand 39 terminals, aiming 100–200 bps margin improvement in 2026 and potential sequential OR improvement in Q1. Tonnage was down 8.3% y/y in Q4, with January (-13.8% y/y) seasonally weakest; weather depressed shipments 2.1% y/y. Revenue per hundredweight rose 1.6% (1% excluding fuel), yield up 0.5% (vs -2.3% y/y). SG&A rose 280 bps y/y, driven by 3% wage increases and 30%+ insurance cost growth; headcount down 5.1% y/y. Depreciation up 110 bps as new terminals became profitable. Management expects 300–400 bps sequential OR deterioration from Q4 to Q1, faster than the historical 30–50 bps, and guidance for Q1 revenue of $790 million–$800 million. The stock closed 5.1% lower on Tuesday amid broader market weakness.