IMF Raises 2026 Global Growth Forecast to 3.3%, Citing AI Surge and Trade Relief

The International Monetary Fund raised its 2026 global GDP growth forecast to 3.3%, up 0.2 percentage points from October, as artificial intelligence investment offsets lingering trade headwinds. The projection marks the third consecutive upward revision since July 2025, driven by reduced U.S. tariff rates—now estimated at 18.5% compared to 25% in April 2025—and supply chain realignments. U.S. growth is forecast at 2.4% for 2026, a 0.3-point increase, fueled by massive investments in AI infrastructure. Spain’s 2026 growth outlook was upgraded to 2.3%, while China’s forecast rose to 4.5% despite a slowdown from 2025’s 5.0%. The IMF warned that sustained AI-driven inflation risks could trigger market corrections if productivity gains fall short. Global inflation is expected to decline to 3.8% in 2026 and 3.4% in 2027, supporting potential monetary easing. However, geopolitical tensions, trade disruptions, and possible new tariffs under emergency laws remain downside risks.