McKinsey: 11 Million US Workers May Need New Occupations by 2035 as AI Reshapes Labor Market

Roughly 11 million U.S. workers — about 7% of the current workforce — may need to switch occupations by 2035 as artificial intelligence and automation reshape the labor market, McKinsey Global Institute said in a report released September 29, 2026. McKinsey projects automation could displace the equivalent of 36 million positions over the next decade, while AI-driven and broader economic expansion is expected to create demand for more than 40 million jobs. About 25 million affected workers are expected to remain in their industries. The total requiring occupational change ranges from 6 million to 16 million depending on automation's pace. The report estimates roughly 770,000 workers would need to switch occupational groups annually — about 3.6 times the historical average. More than 75% of at-risk workers are concentrated in office and administrative support, retail and sales, and transportation and logistics. Lower-wage workers are 7.6 times more likely than higher-wage workers to need a full occupation change. Only about one in seven transitioning workers has a direct pathway requiring minimal retraining and no wage loss. The findings coincided with the Conference Board's labor confidence index falling 6.7 points to 81.9 in September, a 12-year low.