Oil Stabilizes as Iran Tensions Ease, Greenland Dispute Weighs on Markets

Brent crude held near $64 a barrel and West Texas Intermediate traded above $59 on January 19, 2026, as geopolitical risks from Iran eased despite Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei’s confirmation of thousands killed in recent anti-government protests. Market focus shifted to President Donald Trump’s renewed push to acquire Greenland, including threats to impose tariffs on European nations. The move sparked risk aversion, with U.S. stocks declining and gold reaching a record high. A U.S. aircraft carrier was reported moving toward the Middle East, though Trump signaled no immediate military action against Iran. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent argued direct U.S. control of Greenland would enhance deterrence. Despite concerns over oversupply—IEA forecasts a 3.8 million barrels per day glut in 2026—tightness persists in Kazakhstan due to Black Sea logistics issues. Brent time spreads have strengthened, reflecting underlying supply constraints. “Brent remains caught in a balance between rising geopolitical risks and surging inventories,” said Robert Rennie of Westpac Banking Corp. The IEA’s first 2026 monthly report is due Wednesday. Trading volumes may be subdued Monday due to a U.S. holiday.