IEA Forecasts Record Global Coal Demand of 8.94 Billion Tonnes in 2026 on Hormuz Disruption

The International Energy Agency said coal demand will rise 1.2% in 2026 to a record 8.94 billion metric tonnes, as constrained oil and gas trade through the Strait of Hormuz forces countries back to coal. The IEA's mid-year update cited higher natural gas prices and reduced LNG shipments through the corridor for the shift. China, the world's largest coal consumer, is expected to raise demand 1% to 5 billion tonnes, while India is forecast to increase consumption 4.2% to 1.353 billion tonnes. Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Vietnam, Thailand, Bangladesh, the Philippines and several European nations have also increased coal use to offset energy shortages. The IEA warned demand could climb further if a strong El Niño pattern reduces hydropower output across Asia. Global coal production matched a record in 2025 but is expected to dip slightly in 2026, keeping supply tight against rising consumption. U.S. coal consumption is projected to fall about 7% this year, cushioned by cheap domestic natural gas and expanding solar and wind capacity.