Deutsche Bank Warns Copper Supply Crunch Could Lift Prices 50% by 2027

Deutsche Bank warned that global copper inventories have fallen to historic lows as aggressive stockpiling by the US and China drives a supply squeeze, potentially pushing prices about 50% higher to $10 per pound, or roughly $22,050 per metric ton, by the second quarter of 2027. Daniel Ghali, the bank's new head of metals research, said sustained US stockpiling, additional restocking demand, major disruptions to refined copper supply and unexpectedly tight global supply-demand balances are straining the market. He estimates the US and China could control 71% of global copper supply by the end of 2026. China has built strategic copper reserves for decades, while the threat of US tariffs on imported copper has drawn metal into American warehouses, tightening availability elsewhere. Even without tariffs, US futures trade above LME prices, so inventories may shift between US depots rather than return to global markets. Deutsche Bank forecasts copper to average $20,900 per ton in 2027, easing to $18,500 in 2028. On Monday, LME copper fell 1.33% to $14,428.50 per ton.