Analyst Warns AI Compute Layer Faces Downside; Rates Nebius, CoreWeave, Oracle as Sells

Rothschild & Co analyst Alex Haissl downgraded shares of Nebius (NBIS), CoreWeave (CRWV) and Oracle (ORCL) to sell, warning the AI supply chain's "compute layer" — cloud providers leasing chip capacity to model developers — faces material downside. The call, issued in a Sept. 22, 2026 client note, argues compute prices are artificially inflated. Haissl said AI startups funded by venture capital or large tech firms, dubbed "neolabs," are signing compute contracts at prices above what broader market economics support. Buyers currently pay more than $2 billion annually per gigawatt for AI processing capacity, constrained by infrastructure bottlenecks. He noted credit markets are already pricing structural fragility in AI trades even as equity investors chase surging chip and server demand. Heavily capitalized AI spending has shrunk free cash flow at Amazon (AMZN), Microsoft (MSFT) and Alphabet (GOOGL), pushing them to raise debt. Higher financing costs and rising interest rates could further squeeze CoreWeave and Nebius.