Bernstein Lifts Prediction Market Forecast to $10 Trillion Annually by 2035

Bernstein raised its long-term outlook for prediction markets on Sept. 22, projecting $10 trillion in annual trading volume by 2035 — 24 times the $410 billion it expects in 2026 and 10 times its prior 2030 forecast. Analysts led by Gautam Chhugani forecast roughly 70% annual volume compounding through 2035. Industry-wide trading grew from about $50 billion in 2025 to roughly $300 billion in the first eight months of 2026. Sports fell from 61% of 2025 volume and are projected to drop to 38% by 2035, while crypto, stocks, and commodities contracts grow from 12% to 49%, becoming the largest category. Crypto's share of Kalshi's volume rose from under 5% in January to about 20% in August, and commodity trading on the platform grew from under $2 million in all of 2025 to roughly $590 million in 2026, including $410 million in August. Kalshi now controls about 60% of industry volume, up from 35% a year earlier. Bernstein expects clear U.S. regulatory rules for sports prediction markets no earlier than 2027 or 2028.