Colombian Peso Set to Extend Rally if De La Espriella Wins June 21 Runoff, Reuters Poll Shows

The Colombian peso would appreciate an additional 2% immediately after a likely victory by opposition candidate Abelardo De La Espriella in the country’s June 21 presidential runoff, a Reuters poll showed on Friday. The right-wing lawyer already triggered a 3% currency surge after winning the first round on May 31 with 44% of the vote, against 41% for ruling-party senator Iván Cepeda. The median forecast from 17 economists surveyed between June 2 and 5 projects the peso strengthening further on expectations of institutional continuity and private investment under De La Espriella. Conversely, a win by Cepeda, an ally of leftist President Gustavo Petro, would cause a 7% depreciation, analysts said, citing uncertainty over fiscal rules and central bank relations. The peso has climbed 5.7% year-to-date, buoyed by high interest rates and rising oil prices. However, strategists warn that macro risks, including above-target inflation and fiscal strains, could trigger moderate depreciation longer term. The median 12-month forecast sees the peso falling 5.5% to 3,771 per dollar from Thursday’s level of 3,561.