GEO Group (GEO) Q4 Earnings Preview: Revenue Up 13.1%, EPS Estimate $0.25

GEO Group (NYSE:GEO) will report earnings Thursday, Feb 13, 2026, before the bell. Last quarter, the private corrections company posted revenue of $682.3M, up 13.1% YoY and 2.5% over expectations, but guidance for Q1 missed both revenue and EPS estimates. For Q1 2026, the average estimate is revenue of $669.1M (10.1% YoY) and adjusted EPS of $0.25. Over the past 30 days, 12 analyst estimates have been reaffirmed. Peer performance is mixed: Tetra Tech revenue fell 13.4% YoY but beat estimates by 6.4% and rose 3% on results; UniFirst revenue rose 2.7% YoY and topped estimates by 1%. GEO is down 5.6% in the last month versus a 2.6% average decline among peers, with an average analyst price target of $32.25 versus its current share of $16.33. Macroeconomic uncertainty, including trade policy and corporate tax discussions, could weigh on growth.