Global Smartphone Shipments to Drop 13.9% in 2026 as Chip Shortage Hits Budget Models

Global smartphone shipments are forecast to contract 13.9% in 2026 to 1.08 billion units, the steepest annual decline on record, Counterpoint Research said Monday, citing a worsening memory chip shortage compounded by the Iran war. The forecast marks a downgrade from a 12.4% drop projected in February. The squeeze is hitting lower-priced devices hardest as chipmakers prioritize AI-related components. Wholesale smartphone prices rose 14% in the first quarter, and some sub-$150 models may exit the market. "The question is no longer how to grow shipments, but whether to remain in the market at all," said Counterpoint analyst Wang Yang. Premium makers are more resilient. Apple (AAPL) posted record quarterly revenue on iPhone 17 upgrades and its 2026 shipments are seen flat before rising 5% in 2027. Samsung Electronics (005930.KS) is expected to limit its decline to 4%. By contrast, Transsion, exposed to sub-$150 phones, faces a 32% plunge, while Xiaomi (1810.HK) and Honor are projected to drop 28% and 20%, respectively.